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Construction at Iran Site 10/28 06:51
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Iran has begun construction at its
Natanz nuclear facility, satellite images released Wednesday show, just as the
U.N. nuclear agency acknowledged Tehran is building an underground advanced
centrifuge assembly plant after its last one exploded in a reported sabotage
attack last summer.
The construction comes as the U.S. nears Election Day in a campaign pitting
President Donald Trump, whose maximum pressure campaign against Iran has led
Tehran to abandon all limits on its atomic program, and Joe Biden, who has
expressed a willingness to return to the accord. The outcome of the vote likely
will decide which approach America takes. Heightened tensions between Iran and
the U.S. nearly ignited a war at the start of the year.
Since August, Iran has built a new or regraded road to the south of Natanz
toward what analysts believe is a former firing range for security forces at
the enrichment facility, images from San Francisco-based Planet Labs show. A
satellite image Monday shows the site cleared away with what appears to be
construction equipment there.
Analysts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the
Middlebury Institute of International Studies say they believe the site is
undergoing excavation.
"That road also goes into the mountains so it may be the fact that they're
digging some kind of structure that's going to be out in front and that there's
going to be a tunnel in the mountains," said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the
institute who studies Iran's nuclear program. "Or maybe that they're just going
to bury it there."
Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a
request for comment. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy
Organization of Iran, last month told state television the destroyed
above-ground facility was being replaced with one "in the heart of the
mountains around Natanz."
Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy
Agency, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that his inspectors were aware of
the construction. He said Iran had previously informed IAEA inspectors, who
continue to have access to Iran's sites despite the collapse of the nuclear
deal.
"It means that they have started, but it's not completed. It's a long
process," Grossi said.
Trump in 2018 unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from Iran's nuclear deal with
world powers, in which Tehran agreed to limit its uranium enrichment in
exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. When the U.S. ramped up
sanctions, Iran gradually and publicly abandoned those limits as a series of
escalating incidents pushed the two countries to the brink of war at the
beginning of the year.
Iran now enriches uranium to up to 4.5% purity, and according to the last
IAEA report, had a stockpile of 2,105 kilograms (2.32 tons). Experts typically
say 1,050 kilograms (1.15 tons) of low-enriched uranium is enough material to
be re-enriched up to weapons-grade levels of 90% purity for one nuclear weapon.
Iran's so-called "breakout time" -- the time needed for it to build one
nuclear weapon if it chose to do so -- is estimated now to have dropped from
one year under the deal to as little as three months. Iran maintains its
nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though Western countries fear Tehran
could use it to pursue atomic weapons.
Natanz, built underground to harden it against airstrikes, long has been at
the center of those fears since its discovery in 2002. Centrifuges there still
spin in vast halls under 7.6 meters (25 feet) of concrete. Air defense
positions surround the facility in Iran's central Isfahan province.
Despite being one of the most-secure sites in Iran, Natanz was targeted by
the Stuxnet computer virus -- believed to be the creation of the U.S. and
Israel -- before the nuclear deal.
In July, a fire and explosion struck its advanced centrifuge assembly
facility in an incident Iran later described as sabotage. Suspicion has fallen
on Israel, despite a claim of responsibility by a previously unheard-of group.
There have been tensions with the IAEA and Iran even at Natanz, with Tehran
accusing one inspector of testing positive for explosives last year. However,
so far inspectors have been able to maintain their surveillance. something
Lewis described as very important.
"As long as they declared to the IAEA in the proper time frame, there's no
prohibition on putting things underground," he said. "For me, the real red line
would be if the Iranians started to stonewall the IAEA."
For now, it remains unclear how deep Iran will put this new facility. And
while the sabotage will delay Iran in assembling new centrifuges, Lewis warned
the program ultimately would regroup as it had before and continue accumulating
ever-more material beyond the scope of the abandoned nuclear deal.
"We buy ourselves a few months," he said. "But what good is a few months if
we don't know what we're going to use it for?"
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