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DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/26 10:50
Grain, Bean Trade Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed
Corn trade is 1 cent to 2 cents lower and beans are 1 cent to 2 cents lower
at midday trade; wheat trade is narrowly mixed.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the S&P off 55. The dollar index is 15
points higher. Interest-rate products are mostly weaker. Energies are mixed
with crude .50 higher and natural gas .02 lower. Livestock trade is mostly
lower with cattle the downside leader. Precious metals are weaker with gold 15
lower.
CORN:
Corn trade is 1 cent to 2 cents lower at midday with light two-sided action
so far as we stall near resistance levels yet again with further harvest
progress this week to keep pressure on. Ethanol margins should remain stable in
the near term with signs of driving demand picking up a bit into the end of the
month. The daily wire was quiet after the sale to Mexico yesterday. Weekly crop
progress showed the crop 70% mature vs. 60% on average, and 15% harvested vs.
13% on average, with 53% good to excellent, +2% and 18% poor to very poor.
Basis should resume a drift lower for early harvest. On the December chart, the
20-day at $4.81 3/4 remains as resistance which we are just below at midday,
with the fresh low at $4.67 3/4 as support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean trade is 1 cent to 2 cents lower with trade pressing back to the
$13.00 area before fading again with oil trying to lead the product complex.
Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. The daily wire
remained quiet. Basis will likely stay flat as harvest slows a bit with the
river system still declining in flows. Weekly crop progress showed 73% dropping
leaves vs. 62% on average, and 12% harvested vs. 11% on average with 50% good
to excellent, and 18% poor to very poor.
South American weather is keeping rains to southern Brazil and northern
Argentina so far with planting to expand into the end of the month with better
rains to the north potentially this week. November chart support is the fresh
low at $12.84 1/2, with resistance at the 20-day at $13.44.
WHEAT:
after the solid start to the week with little fresh news to drive action as
we stay at the lower end of the range. Matif wheat is flat with the dollar near
the highs still. Winter wheat planting was pegged at 26% vs. 29% on average,
and 7% emerged vs. 6% on average with spring wheat 96% harvested, same as
average. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 451,004 metric tons. On the
KC December Chart, the 20-day at $7.28 is resistance with support in the lower
Bollinger Band at $7.07 with the fresh low at $7.03 just below that.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala
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