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DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/29 11:15
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 1 to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 6 to 8 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 1 to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 6 to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market has turned higher with the S&P up 36 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 25
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude
up .70 and natural gas down a penny. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle
higher and hogs lower. Precious metals have turned mixed with gold down 6.40.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday. The midday market has backed
off after testing nearby resistance with firmer spread action. The trade
continues to move forward ahead of the all-important March Acreage report
coming out Friday. Also, some spillover support from wheat is seen on the
announcement of Viterra and Cargill leaving the Russian grain trade. Outside
markets are mostly firmer; the dollar is slightly higher. Looking to Friday,
the average guess is 90.88 million acres of corn with stocks at 7.470 billion
bushels (bb) versus 89.4 million acres and 7.758 bb in stock last year. Ethanol
margins will need more help from unleaded to boost blender action with firming
corn values crimping margins again despite the uptick in demand seasonally with
the weekly report expected to show steady production and stocks. Basis has
continued to generally drift back higher. The daily export wire showed 136,000
metric tons (mt) sold to China on Tuesday as the recent hot streak continues
that has helped corn recover the past two weeks. The second crop in Brazil is
heading toward the better part of the growing season with trade watching
forecasts into April for development with some concerns on the horizon in
Central Brazil short term. On the May chart we are solidly above the 20-day
moving average, which is now support at $6.32, and resistance is at the Upper
Bollinger Band at $6.54.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 1 to 8 cents higher at midday as the spread between old
crop and new crop continues to build. Trade is working to consolidate the
recent rebound just short of nearby resistance. Meal has turned marginally
lower and oil is 25 points higher. For Friday's report, the trade is looking
for 88.242 million acres and 1.742 bu of stocks versus 90.955 million acres and
1.931 bb last year. With South American new-crop beans becoming available,
export news has remained limited in recent days. China values have slowed their
washout as well, helping to find some stability. Basis has generally remained
solid in the short term with the market still showing a substantial inverse
even with recent narrowing. May chart support is now at the lower Bollinger
Band at $14.22, which we pushed back above Monday, with further support at the
$14.05 fresh low scored Friday, while the 20-day moving average is just above
the market at $14.84.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 6 to 8 cents higher at midday, backing off early strength
from Russian headlines. Trade pressed back to the top of the yearly range with
weather concerns on the Plains and more talk of changing export potential from
the Black Sea into summer. Chicago is gaining against KC as we stay at 12-year
highs for premium between the two. On the report, trade is looking for all
wheat at 48.852 million acres and stocks at 934 million bushels (mb) versus
47.351 million acres and 1.025 bb last year. Weather will continue to support
KC action with the western Plains to continue to struggle with moisture to the
east, while early spring wheat progress will be limited with cold and snow
delaying the start of the season. The dollar remains toward the lower end of
the range, while Matif wheat is sharply higher as well this morning, supporting
Chicago trade. Little other change is noted on the world scene for now as India
presses into harvest and other Northern Hemisphere weather issues are limited
for now with Australia planting on the horizon. On the KC May Chart the 20-day
moving average is support at $8.23 with the fresh high scored in Wednesday's
trade at $8.96 becoming resistance for now.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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