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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/26 11:33
Outside Economic Pressure Sends Cattle Lower
It's been a tough day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and
feeder cattle contracts trade sharply lower.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle contracts are enduring a tough day as the market can't seem to
gather any interest from traders. The lean hog contracts are trading lower too
but aren't seeing near the pressure that the cattle contracts currently are.
December corn is down 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down
$1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 299.10 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is seeing significant losses across the futures
complex this morning as its contracts can't seem to attract traders' interest
whatsoever. Right now, the spot December contract is being pressured to the
point where support levels in the current sideways trading range are being
pressured and closing below support could alarming to traders. The biggest bear
seeming to add pressure to the market at this point continues to be our
economy's weakened state and the looming concern and likelihood that interest
rates will continue to creep higher. October live cattle are down $2.10 at
$184.87, December live cattle are down $2.60 at $188.62, and February live
cattle are down $2.52 at $193.35. NO cash cattle trade has developed yet and
it's likely that the market won't see much interest until Wednesday or later.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.28 ($301.20) and select down
$0.72 ($279.73) with a movement of 77 loads (41.21 loads of choice, 21.72 loads
of select, 3.46 loads of trim and 10.83 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is trading anywhere from $1.00 to $4.00 lower as
the market comes up short of finding any support thus far in Tuesday's complex.
October feeders are down $3.82 at $255.00, November feeders are down $4.60 at
$258.10 and January feeders are down $4.22 at $261.37. Even though corn prices
are trending lower too, it's unlikely that the market closes higher as there's
simply too much outside pressure hovering over the cattle complex at this point
to expect anything different.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was more aggressive at the day's start than what it's
currently being as the market nears Tuesday's noon hour, but without virtually
any support from the cash market it's hard for traders to turn the contracts
higher on just support from cutouts. Also adding a little pressure to the
market is the fact that on Thursday another Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is
set to be released. The report should add clarity to the market long term in
regard to what to expect after Prop 12, but with big changes coming to the
market, it does feel like a big elephant in the room. October lean hogs are
down $0.02 at $81.50, December lean hogs are down $0.40 at $72.12, and February
lean hogs are down $0.40 at $75.70.
The projected lean hog index for 9/25/2023 is down $0.39 at $86.31, and the
actual index for 9/22/2023 is down $0.38 at $86.70. Hog prices are unavailable
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can
see that only 405 head have traded this morning and that the five-day rolling
average now sits at $78.50. Pork cutouts total 192.10 loads with 169.27 loads
of pork cuts and 22.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.95, $99.81.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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